The insurrection of January 6 was so chaotic and nihilistic that it may seem unplanned, but that is doubtful. For example, whoever planted the pipe bombs intended to create a diversion, and that’s part of a plan. It’s also likely someone with military training came up with that idea.
So, what was the overall plan?
In general terms, the plan was to decertify the Electoral College vote, or to delay certification indefinitely.
There are some specific parts of the plan that are clear from news reports. For example, that Pence was supposed to unilaterally reject the electoral votes from the states, and that Trump was going to seize the Dominion voting machines and appoint a commission to investigate electoral fraud, headed by Sidney Powell.
https://www.wsls.com/news/politics/2021/01/05/loyal-soldier-pence-torn-between-trump-constitution/
https://abc7.com/donald-trump-sidney-powell-special-counsel-election-results-2020/8922766/
The last link alludes to another apparent part of the plan: the declaration of martial law, or some other state of emergency. And that plays off the QAnon idea of “The Storm,” when martial law is declared and Trump’s enemies are executed.
Given these three elements—-Pence’s rejection of the electoral votes from the states, the seizure of the voting machines and the declaration of a state of emergency—what might the overall plan have looked like? Granted, this is speculative, but there can’t be any doubt about the objective, which was to decertify the election or delay the certification vote indefinitely.
The plan was almost certainly not: “let’s get our supporters to storm the Capitol, scare Congress and then maybe they’ll be so intimidated they won’t certify the election.” Besides being feckless and unrealistic, that plan wouldn’t require seizing the voting machines or a declaration of martial law.
What we saw on TV was a broken plan; it failed, and in the aftermath Trump’s supporters wandered around the Capitol imagining they’d won a great victory.
Let’s look at what I believe was the original plan, and then look at the modified plan that was put into execution.
The original: Trump speaks to the crowd and it marches to the Capitol. Inside, Congress is in session, presided over by Mike Pence, and the electoral votes from the states are brought to Pence’s podium. Pence looks briefly at the votes and says he cannot accept them, due to fraud. He cites “new” information, perhaps related to the seizure of voting machines—“examination shows conclusive evidence of hacking,” or something like that. Naturally, there’s a scene. At that moment, the Proud Boys, QAnon cultists and various militias storm the Capitol.
This is “The Storm” of QAnon mythology, when Trump’s opponents are executed, and QAnon zealots were quoted to that effect. Congressional leaders were to be arrested and executed—perhaps after some sort of trial.
Trump goes on TV, blames antifa or BLM infiltrators for the killings, invokes the Insurrection Act and declares martial law. For this to be at all plausible, the victims would have to include some Republicans. Since Trump hates Mitt Romney and Liz Cheney more than he hates most Democrats, that part of the plan works for him.
Trump also appoints a commission to investigate electoral fraud, headed by Sidney Powell or Giuliani, seizes all the voting machines and suspends habeas corpus. China is blamed for masterminding everything. A number of people are taken into immediate custody, including the Secretary of State of Georgia. The inauguration is postponed until the commission has completed its work. Congress is suspended for its own safety.
Demonstrations are declared illegal, and any that occur are treated as insurrections, and suppressed by gunfire. Regular army units would do the dirty work, and Flynn might be appointed head of the Joint Chiefs.
Eventually Powell issues a report saying there was massive fraud and overwhelming evidence that Trump won the election. The courts are silenced somehow, and the media suppressed. Trump gets a second term, and enough Republicans are allowed to return to Congress to approve of that.
The modified plan: Pence had refused his part in this play, but the rest of it was intended to go forward without him—or rather, he was added to the list of people to be executed.
This modified plan didn’t work because the Capitol Police fought too hard and no member of Congress was captured and executed. Without executions there was no way to justify the Insurrection Act, suspend habeas corpus and all the rest. Congress was hopping mad and returned later that night to certify the election, although many Republicans still voted against it.
Of course there’s a lot of supposition here, but this argument is anchored in three places: Trump incited the storming of the Capitol; Trump wanted Pence to reject the Electoral College ballots; Trump’s goal was a second term, if not dictatorship for life.
He couldn’t achieve his goal if Congress were still in session and the courts were operating normally. Therefore he had to declare a state of emergency—martial law or an invocation of the Insurrection Act—so he could dismiss Congress and overrule the courts.
Would this plan have worked? Probably not—I don’t see the Army allowing itself to be used in that way, and the media and courts might not have been neutralized so easily. But it *might* have worked for a few weeks or months.
And more to the point, Trump and Flynn and Powell probably believed it would work.
Would they really have killed members of Congress? Would they really have gone that far? Their objective was to overturn a free and fair election and impose a dictatorship; there’s no way to do that without force. They were certainly aware of the significance of the “The Storm,” to their QAnon followers.
If they didn’t realize they were going to have to kill to destroy American democracy, then they’re even bigger fools than we thought. And in fact Trump and Flynn seemed comfortable with shedding American blood.
Let’s now look at the implications. First, if the modified plan had worked, there would have been significant resistance: mass demonstrations, strikes and so on. After all, the majority of the American people, the judiciary, the media, and most of the political class knew the election was free and fair. Dealing with this resistance would have necessarily involved lethal force, since both the courts and the people would have opposed Trump. The country would have been plunged into civil strife, perhaps full-scale civil war, willy-nilly. It’s impossible to predict how bad the violence would have been, except to note that 45%-50% of Americans have consistently said they were strongly opposed to Trump as President—imagine how they’d react if he were promoted to dictator.
Second, let’s look at what this means for Billionaire Capitalism and American democracy. There is a persistent tendency for the Republican Party to move right on issues, regardless of public opinion or the facts. Originally, back in the ‘80s, Republicans claimed that there wasn’t enough evidence of global warming; then they admitted to the warming, but contended it was just normal cycling of the earth’s climate; then they claimed it was a hoax by scientists, then a plot by liberals to take control of the economy and society.
At present they just spit on the ground whenever the subject comes up. Most of them know that climate change is real, but they have no other cards to play. So they just ramp up the hate against Democrats and ignore the issue.
And this phenomenon isn’t limited to climate change. On tax policy, for example, they started out in the ‘80s arguing that the 70% maximum rate was too high, and a tax cut—a single one— would help the middle class and stimulate the economy; they actually had reasons.
Now the big tax cuts are never-ending and targeted at only a tiny proportion of the population, and the Republicans can hardly be bothered to come up with reasons. It’s transparent that the Republican donor class is using the federal budget as an ATM.
In effect, the Republican position is that the ultra-rich should pay only token taxes, or none at all. And that any opposition to that idea is Marxism. This is not at all where they started out in 1981.
And gun control is similar. It seems centuries ago that George H.W. Bush banned the import of assault weapons.
And democratic rule is another such issue. An awakened democracy has always been the biggest threat to Billionaire Capitalism, and the Republicans have been undermining democracy with gerrymandering, voter suppression and massive disinformation for a long, long time. But at the end of the day, it all looked somewhat constitutional, and stealing an election that wasn’t close was considered bad form.
Storming Congress to prevent counting the electoral vote was quite a break with tradition, to say the least. And summary executions of members of Congress and the Vice-President would likewise have been unprecedented. Once again Republicans have moved much further right, this time on the issues of democracy, the Constitution, and the rule of law.
In fact, they are now openly totalitarian, with no commitment to the democratic process or the rule of law, bristling with rage against America. Their movement is addicted to disinformation, especially conspiracy theories, and its great issue is that the 2020 election was stolen from them. This is a lie, of course, but the truth—any truth—would be wildly out of place.
Can they pivot away from this issue? It’s hard to imagine how; if their hard-core followers truly believe the election was stolen, how can any other issue take center stage? It is possible that many of them realize that Biden won the election fair and square, just as many of them now realize that climate change is real. But that doesn’t mean they’ll let go of the issue, because they are now too alienated and radicalized to admit they were wrong.
Before Jan. 6, there was always a distinction between right-wing domestic terrorists and Republican leadership, but now we have members of Congress attempting to bring firearms onto the House floor, and of course there is Josh Hawley’s fist, raised in solidarity with white supremacists and QAnon cultists on their way to pillage the Capitol.
But as Ed Rollins recently pointed out, “if the GOP becomes the party of chaos, we’re finished.” Can they sell suburban voters t-shirts with the QAnon Shaman’s face on them? Are white middle-class women impressed? Conservative-leaning blacks? Older white voters in swing states? Are old people into QAnon?
Most of the electorate reject more tax cuts or deregulation, and ditto for slashing Social Security, Medicare and Obamacare. Trump’s trade wars were never popular, so what else do Republicans have to offer voters?
What they have is this: that modern American culture itself is the enemy, and no counter-measures taken against it are too extreme. Our modern culture as it exists today—with its recycling bins, its tolerance for gays, respect for science and horror at police violence—is the serpent which the right-wing must smite.
They are trying to sell the idea that America is at war with itself—perhaps only a cultural war for now, but soon enough a shooting war as well—and that conservative whites should sign up enthusiastically for this struggle. The Democratic Party is the political expression of modern American culture, and its triumph would be so intensely oppressive that actively preventing tens of millions of Democrats from voting is justified, besides—in effect—installing Trump as dictator-for-life.
How in the world does that appeal to any group beyond die-hard Trump supporters? How is that any sort of positive vision for the future? Even many Trump supporters might quail at the breadth of this struggle—they know that modern American culture is what it is, that this is what most young people have already chosen, and it’s not going away. Trump supporters generally understand that they’ve lost the culture war—oh, they can blame it on the media and the universities, but they know the situation.
Trying to defeat “peace, love and understanding” with QAnon and white supremacy is not going to work.
And a particular problem for Republicans is violence. QAnon and the white supremacists have a vision that their version of justice can only be achieved by deadly force. And they don’t see this as a disagreeable necessity because they believe bloodshed will purify our corrupt society. And these groups are key, because they are the only Trump supporters who have deeply held reasons for hating modern American culture.
If they start a campaign of assassinations and bombings then what will Kevin McCarthy say? That the GOP needs to stay on message? That Biden’s proposals are communism?
No, if the Republicans resort to domestic terrorism then the country will turn decisively against them.
But if they don’t resort to violence then that undermines the credibility of their message of the monstrous threat of modern American culture and the Democratic Party. If it’s all that bad you’re going to do something about it, right? Oh, you’re just going to sit there, watch OAN and refuse to get vaccinated? I see.
If this is the end of civilization and Republicans are mumbling about voting machines and transexuals, then that looks rather weak, doesn’t it?
Worse, it looks suspiciously like a failed political movement. The Billionaire Capitalist apparatchiks can’t expand their coalition without better issues, so all they can do is try to flog more outrage and violence out of white conservatives who didn’t go to college, but there’s a limit to everything.
The insurrectionists of January 6 have been extremely quiet lately. Whatever they’re thinking, I’m going to guess it’s not good for the Republican apparatchiks; the QAnon cultists and white supremacists were promised that Trump was going to be president by now. They were also promised pardons.
Part of Trump’s appeal to his base was his unvarnished will-to-power; he talked tough and acted large. But after all the trash he talked during the campaign, Biden is unquestionably in the White House.
Eventually, that’s going to sink in for Trump’s base. They may still stick with him, and the “stolen election” issue may have some legs left, but the idea that future elections will just be a replay of 2020 assumes that Trump’s base is unvarying, and it isn’t.
What it is instead are older white people mostly without a lot of education and often (not always) without much money, spare time or energy. These people need to get to bed early and take their meds on time. If they have jobs, they need them.
And they’ve experienced their share of disappointment; they know what that’s like. The 2022 midterms might be a replay of 2020, but I wonder—I just wonder.
The Socialist Investor 