A Greater Power

A wise friend reviewed an earlier draft of the following essay, and among other things he said:

“You start with a word that turns off about 70% of readers from the get go – Socialism.”

What I wrote back to him was this:

“You’re right, socialism is not a good hook for most readers. But, if you ask yourself, what mistake did we make—as a people, as a civilization—that led to this horror of Trump with the nuclear codes…..then one plausible answer is that we wrote socialism off too soon. And we did, I believe, partly because we didn’t appreciate how dangerous capitalism is. We thought capitalism was workable, that it could be restrained by liberal democracy, and we were wrong.

It’s clear that the future belongs to the writers and leaders who can discuss the ‘we were wrong’ aspect of our current situation in an informative way, with a minimum of scapegoating. Because confidence in our institutions is down the tubes. It won’t come back until we get a reasonable explanation for what went wrong.

And I am talking about a different kind of socialism….

And I don’t need that many readers, a few dozen, maybe. Once people start thinking about our situation in different terms, it will spread and then we’ll see change. Simple liberalism or “progressive” policies won’t work anymore, and we need to understand why. Part of it is identity politics, and part of it is an absolute lack of any positive and unifying vision. We’re just supposed to beat back fascism and then return to watching “Girls” on our smart phones? That won’t work. There’s got to be a vision, preferably an inspiring one. Identity politics isn’t working, it’s just become an extension of our narcissism. (It *could* be something better, but it isn’t.) We’re a highly individualistic culture, but the individualism is empty.

When FDR was pushing his program, the vision was to permanently contain the destructive aspects of capitalism, which would allow the emergence of an educated and progressive middle class, along with a reduction in poverty. And that worked, except for the ‘permanently’ part. Today, we don’t have a similar vision, or any vision at all, really.

Thanks for reading this and getting back to me. I know the subject isn’t interesting, but that’s a symptom of our problem—that we don’t understand the need to make basic changes in our civilization, so discussions of the nature of capitalism and alternatives just seem arcane. But if you’re in prison, a discussion of cutting torches and hacksaws should be fascinating.

Just beating the Republicans in the next election or two (and that’s important) won’t be enough. The Republicans do have a vision, and that’s a strength for them. It’s a vision that most people wouldn’t like if they understood it, but Republicans like it: it’s a vision of constantly increasing the share of GDP that goes to the 1%, and simultaneously destroying all the institutions that might prevent that, like democracy and freedom of the press, secular education, science—indeed the entire culture of the American middle class. Of course the Democratic Party must be co-opted and ultimately eliminated, and moderate Republicans must be suppressed as well.

I will let the foregoing serve to set the context for the following essay, “An Aversion to Capitalism.” We are like someone clinging to a cliff with the ocean crashing hundreds of feet beneath him, who cannot remember or understand how he came to this awful moment.

An Aversion to Capitalism

There are three basic questions about socialism that we have to answer. First, we need to explain socialism’s past—in particular, why has socialism (so far) failed to transform Western civilization? Second, we must ask about socialism’s future—what is our vision of an effective socialism in the twenty-first century? This second question assumes we have broad latitude to re-conceive and re-invent socialism—and we do. We have the power to create a new socialism.

Third, given that socialism is born out of an aversion to capitalism, what is the source of that aversion? This is a key issue: what is it that we don’t like about capitalism? The answer to this question is highly relevant to the first two questions, and so we will take up this question first.

In Marx’s writing, there is a lack of precision on what is objectionable about capitalism. Marx speaks of exploitation, of the alienation of labor, but it all sounds unconvincingly abstract, or as if he were avoiding something. Why launch a destructive revolution in response to problems with soft edges, problems that might be solved by democratic reforms? And this was ultimately a question that communism could not answer.

However, when we turn to Civilization and Capitalism by Fernand Braudel, it’s clear that Marx overlooked the importance of pre-industrial capitalism. For Marx, capitalist oppression did not truly begin until the means of production had been wrested from the guilds and village craftsmen of Europe. But what happened to European workers was a result of trends that began earlier and elsewhere.

In Braudel’s work we see what Marx missed. Pre-industrial capitalism, starting in the 1400s, laid the foundation for modern capitalism, and nowhere is this more obvious than in the New World.

Pre-industrial capitalism’s most dynamic sector was long-distance trade, the spice and silk trades in particular. As Braudel points out, a key problem was how Europe was to pay for these luxuries? Although prosperous, Europe did not produce much that Asia needed. Early on, when the trade was overland and Moslem merchants were the middlemen, Europe was able to pay partly in fine woolens manufactured in the Low Countries from English wool. But further east neither India nor China needed much that Europe produced, particularly given the cost of transport.

There was no single answer to this problem, but precious metals from the New World played a major role, particularly in trade with China. The silver of Potosi and Taxco enabled a thriving trans-Pacific trade in silk, porcelain and other finished goods that effectively brought China into the world economy. If Europe itself produced little that the Chinese wanted, the same was not true of the mines of Bolivia and Peru. Silver always had a place in Chinese markets.

Westerners appeared in China with something valuable that was derived from their administrative and technological expertise—silver. Taking silver to market in Shanghai meant building and sailing ships, casting cannons and developing the math to fire them accurately, making gunpowder and storing it safely, making sextants and training naval officers to use them, drilling soldiers endlessly, kidnapping sailors, making hundreds of miles of hawsers by hand, weaving and sewing countless sails, developing mining and smelting techniques (and supplying the mercury which was critical to smelting), and developing a brutally efficient colonial administration to provide the miners and keep them working. And food was needed everywhere—as well as paper and clerks to record everything.

Silver served as a shorthand or a symbol almost of European efficiencies which were otherwise hard to export.

The Chinese in turn offered high-value and labor-intensive goods in exchange for this silver: silk, porcelain, and lacquer.

Without the silver of Potosi, the effort to create a global trade network would have failed—China would have been included in only a minor way, as indeed was the case with Japan.

But the key point here is that this pre-industrial trade between Europe and China involved immense human suffering. The silver used to open Chinese markets was produced at a staggering human cost. At Cerro Potosi, “the mountain that eats men,” millions died—by one estimate, eight million. The lethalness of the colonial mine can be judged by the fact that even modern miners at Potosi have a life expectancy of about 40 years. One Spanish priest estimated that about half of the new miners were crippled within the first week.

The labor used at Potosi was more-or-less unfree. That is, some people “volunteered” but the Spanish tribute requirements left most with little choice. The tribute was deliberately set at a level that forced most subjects to work in the mines, leaving their villages. Often complete families made the trek, which was often arduous, given the altitude and the lack of food. Crowded into mining camps where food and shelter were expensive, exposed to European diseases and often injured or sickened by the work itself, the mortality rate was tremendous. The mining at Potosi led to a dramatic depopulation throughout what is now Bolivia and Peru. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerro_Rico and http://www.cesam.umu.se/digitalAssets/136/136019_seminarium-gil-monteroirsh_140108.pdf

And that impact was just from the largest mine in Bolivia. Potosi was the worst case by far—in the mining sector. But there were smaller silver and gold mines throughout the New World, just as lethal on a smaller scale—in Peru, Mexico, and Brazil.

And this is just mining, never mind the extreme death toll on sugar cane plantations (likely worse than mining overall), in tobacco processing in North America, in the wars fought to control the fur trade, among the Native Americans everywhere, and among sailors, soldiers, slaves and prostitutes. The death toll on the Middle Passage alone probably rivaled Potosi.

And these were not frontier anomalies, due to disorganization or unexpected challenges from the environment. The high death rates are everywhere evidence of intensive economic activity and a high level of integration with the global trade network. Silver, gold, fur, sugar, tobacco and slaves were all destined for the world market, and areas that did not produce these commodities were forced to play supporting roles. The farmers of Pennsylvania and New York grew wheat for the slaves in the West Indies, and New Englanders built and sailed the ships that carried that wheat south.

If an economic system may be said to have goals (or primary areas of focus), the goal of Western capitalism from 1419 (when the Portuguese occupied Cueta) until the Industrial Revolution was to create a global trade network encompassing India, China, Southeast Asia, Africa, Japan, and the New World. Gold from Ghana was used to purchase spices in India, silver from Potosi was used to purchase silks and porcelain from China, and opium from India was used later for the same purpose by the British, who did not have a Potosi of their own. Not all of these activities involved great suffering, at least at first. The Akan people panned for gold and traded it to the Portuguese for beads and cloth, but later the gold required more labor, and the price expanded to muskets, swords and brandy. And with Western weapons, local warfare became more destructive—and more slaves were captured.

But what has that to do with today’s capitalism? Yes, pre-industrial trade resulted in suffering that rivals the death toll of the World Wars—not just in relative terms, but in absolute numbers. You might argue that the economic compulsion to ruthlessly exploit labor was softened by the Industrial Revolution and automation—at least after the initial disruptions.  Certainly, wages and living standards rose with the greater productivity brought by machines—eventually.

But that is incorrect. Perhaps—just perhaps—the scale of suffering has been reduced somewhat by machine productivity, but the pattern of sacrificing human lives for economic success is still with us. Although the lives sacrificed are now as likely those of customers rather than workers; in the bad old days, the workers were more at risk.

For example:

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/6/28/15881720/deaths-senate-health-care-bcra

We are willing to sacrifice the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans, and the health of millions more, for insurance companies and the bonuses of their CEOs. You might say this isn’t on the scale of Cerro Potosi, but it took centuries for those millions of miners to die, and if the current American health system lasts the 300 years or so it took to mine out Potosi, then the death toll (at 25,000 per year) is 7.5 million, roughly the same as Cerro Potosi. In other words, the annual death rate from the Republican repeal-and-replace of Obamacare would be roughly the same as that hell on earth, Cerro Potosi, “the mountain that eats men.”

Forget “exploitation,” which is too abstract. Capitalism kills and it will inevitably kill unless restrained, because for capitalism to work large numbers of people, investors and workers alike, must see every situation in terms of profit and loss, of money earned or money lost. They are socialized by capitalism to ignore suffering and if lives are lost then the monetary loss associated with those lives (tools lost, insurance payments, expense to train replacements) must be calculated and recorded and the actual loss of human lives forgotten as soon as possible—or attributed to fate. In other words, the monetary loss is real, the actual loss is not.

Capitalism is so good at replacing life that we even accept capitalism’s version of death.

Consider the modern instances of tobacco companies killing six million per year globally, of the mesothelioma epidemic, of the death toll from oxycontin, trans-fats (up to 100,000 deaths annually in the US), sodium nitrite, benzo-diazepines, high-fructose corn syrup and plain old sugar—not to mention pesticides and herbicides, automobiles, motorcycles, farm equipment and firearms. Mining and oil drilling casualties shouldn’t be forgotten, either. And we should also count the death toll from the sheer stress of being a worker under this system.

https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/fast_facts/index.htm

Trans Fats: Deadly Consequences of FDA Inaction

Another example is the sugar industry. In the early sixties evidence was accumulating that there was a link between sugar consumption and heart disease, and the sugar industry launched a clandestine effort to suppress studies that indicated any such relationship, and to shift the entire blame to fats. Their own internal research showed differently. This effort succeeded and we still mostly see heart disease in terms of cholesterol—not just the general public but doctors and scientists as well.

How many lives were lost to this man-made illusion? That’s 55 years that we’ve misdiagnosed a major public health issue, and that is entirely due to capitalism.

A few weeks ago, I heard on the radio an interview of someone from the ACU (American Conservative Union). He said that the rights of the individual are the basis of the conservative movement. And while I believe individual rights are important, in a society that routinely kills hundreds of thousands of individuals every year, and blights the lives of millions of others with ill-health, addiction and ignorance, what is the point of individual rights? Isn’t the most basic right the right to live? Every other right we have is conditioned on life, because the dead have no individual rights—they can’t crowd-source a startup or join Mensa or vote Libertarian.

The people at the ACU may know this at some level, but maybe they figure the people who die are not people like them. Or perhaps they are in denial.

So, capitalism kills just as it did in Peru in the 1500s. Capitalism kills exactly as many people as it needs to, five hundred years ago as well as today, and many modern reforms are an effort to compensate for that fact. The FDA exists to prevent capitalism from poisoning us via food or medicine; the EPA exists to prevent capitalism from poisoning us via water and air. OHSA exists to keep capitalism from killing us while we work.

You might say, wait—wouldn’t any civilization this large necessarily cause death every time it made a change of any sort? That might be true, but it’s a question of scale and context. We didn’t just use asbestos until we discovered the harm it does to those who work with it—this had been demonstrated irrefutably by 1924, and there was some evidence as early as 1899. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asbestos.

But even in 1991 asbestos was still being used in the US:

“The use of asbestos in new construction projects has been banned for health and safety reasons in many developed countries or regions, including the European Union, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, and New Zealand. A notable exception is the United States, where asbestos continues to be used in construction such as cement asbestos pipes. The 5th Circuit Court prevented the EPA from banning asbestos in 1991 because EPA research showed the ban would cost between $450 and 800 million while only saving around 200 lives in a 13-year timeframe, and that the EPA did not provide adequate evidence for the safety of alternative products.[59]”

Here the tradeoff between lives and profit was made explicit by a federal court. If $2.25 to $4 million can be saved by sacrificing a human life, then that’s a life well spent. One can imagine exactly the same calculation being made at Cerro Potosi. Naturally we realize that this tradeoff does not apply to the wealthy—no one would think of sacrificing a billionaire’s life for $4,000,000. Or for that matter, the life of a federal judge.

You might say, but weren’t more lives saved from fire than were sacrificed to asbestos? But if this had been an altruistic trade-off, capitalism would have done everything possible to minimize the deaths from asbestos, by using filters and face masks for the workers. In fact these masks were not always used even in the ‘70s. But the link between asbestos and asbestosis was conclusively demonstrated in 1924 by an inquest into a worker’s death in the UK, and the link between asbestos and mesothelioma was proven in 1960 in Australia.

And in any case, the prolonged use of asbestos had the effect of delaying the introduction of substitutes that were better at preventing fires. For example, see http://www.nfpa.org/news-and-research/fire-statistics-and-reports/fire-statistics/fires-in-the-us/overall-fire-problem/overview-of-the-us-fire-problem, for detailed statistics on fire casualties in the US. As awareness of the hazards of asbestos increased in the late ‘70s, and substitutes were introduced, the number of civilian fire deaths started to decline around 1980, and they have declined to the present day, with various fiberglass-based products and other substitutes taking the place of asbestos. In other words, as asbestos was being phased out, fire deaths fell significantly.

The widespread use of asbestos—the near-monopoly it held among flame-retardant materials—prevented the development of safer and more effective alternatives.

And then we have the case of oxycontin, where the company almost certainly understood the addictive nature of their product, and set out to obscure that risk from the very beginning.

https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2017/11/22/meet-sackler-family-making-billions-from-opioid-crisis.aspx?utm_source=dnl&utm_medium=email&utm_content=art1&utm_campaign=20171122Z1_UCM&et_cid=DM166652&et_rid=128412078

[Note that Dr. Mercola’s health recommendations at the end of this article are not relevant to this discussion.]

I have not included the deaths due to unchecked climate change, which could amount to hundreds of millions in the next few decades. It is quite possible that capitalism’s destruction of human life might extend to agriculture itself, the basis for human life. If farming becomes impossible in some areas (and we already see this in parts of Texas), then the population that is dependent on those farms must decline or migrate.

Now—we ordinarily do not see this problem as a systemic problem with capitalism, but as a problem with unscrupulous capitalists, which is a natural mistake. Many of the CEOs of our corporations have been socialized to behave as sociopaths—they lie, they are unspeakably grasping, and they display a profound indifference to the suffering that results from their actions. They seem to feel no sense of responsibility or remorse, and if called to account they often act as if they are victims of injustice.

However, this is most definitely not the result of bad people corrupting an otherwise good or morally neutral system. The system selects and trains the people, and the CEOs are often the unwitting victims of this process. Tobacco company executives were often heavy smokers and died of lung cancer at the usual tragic rate. This is not to say that executives of destructive companies should escape punishment; society needs all the defenses it can muster against capitalism. But the moral bankruptcy of many CEOs is a result of capitalism’s destructive power, not its cause. Yes, they are outstandingly bad people—but they didn’t get that bad by accident.

You may object and say, look at all the money Bill Gates has given away, the work he’s done to limit malaria and other diseases, and likewise Dave Packard and Bill Hewlett and the money they gave for education and the environment. Aren’t they good men? Weren’t those good actions? And they were indeed. But software and electronics do not require killing millions, at least so far. So Gates, Packard and Hewlett were never faced with that necessity. Not all capitalist enterprises are necessarily lethal, but the potential is always there.

A simple thought experiment may shed light on this problem. Let’s say that all the Fortune 500 companies were given a simple choice—double your revenue and profits but at the cost of killing 100,000 people. However, no one would ever know about the deaths—they would be untraceable. How many of these companies would choose the higher revenue and profits? I submit that most of them would. Not necessarily all, because simple human decency is gratifyingly hard to eradicate. Let’s say fifty of these five hundred CEOs would shrink from corporate murder.

What happens to that fifty? Isn’t virtue its own reward? But when the next annual financial results are reported, our good CEOs will clearly have been left behind by their peers in terms of performance. Some of those fifty will lose their jobs immediately, others will lose their bonuses and eventually—one way or another—those fifty companies will end up with CEOs who know how to seize new opportunities, or (much less likely) the companies will go out of business. The righteous fifty will either lose their jobs or learn better.

Therefore, personal morality can never compensate for capitalism’s lethal potential. Anyone ethical enough to resist (and resistance is extremely difficult) will simply be replaced.

So, capitalism kills. Not every single capitalist enterprise is a threat to life and public health, but the entire system is always a threat. In the time it takes you to read this essay, about 25 people will have died from tobacco in the US alone.

And I do not mean that killing necessarily completely defines capitalism. Fire also kills and it’s always a threat to burn out of control—but it’s a tool which we could not live without. And likewise for electricity, lye, chlorine bleach, etc. Capitalism is useful, but it’s dangerous.

If the comparison to fire or bleach is unconvincing, then consider our legal system. Both the law and capitalism are social constructs that have evolved slowly over centuries, even millennia. We cannot live without the law, and yet how much misery it has caused! How many people have been unjustly executed or imprisoned in the name of the law, even in modern times. And how often has the law been used as an instrument of oppression by the powerful? In modern times, from Stalin to Erdogan, dictators have suborned the legal system to punish their opponents, real and imagined.

And we are aware (or half-aware) that the law, even in a democratic country with finely honed safeguards, can become monstrous. False accusations are made—and sometimes believed.

But when it comes to capitalism, we’re blind to that. People who wouldn’t think of using lye without rubber gloves honestly believe that market forces are always benign. We do not have the caution with capitalism that we have with fire or with capital punishment, and yet capitalism is unquestionably more dangerous than either. At its worst, the law may execute a few dozen people unjustly, but capitalism kills millions globally every year without a murmur from the people.

We need the same safeguards around capitalism that we have for any other destructive (but useful) force in our lives.

And this starts with the awareness that capitalism kills on a large scale, unless it is prevented from doing so by a greater power.

So, this is the source of our aversion to capitalism. It kills, and it may kill us or our loved ones. And it is not evil CEOs that are the ultimate cause of this continuing massacre.

It is instead capitalism. This realization should shock us into self-recognition, into understanding something we have been denying for a century and a half: socialism is founded on a deep reverence for human life, the same as many religions. And yet because of the Zeitgeist of the 19th century, and because we couldn’t endure capitalism’s seemingly irrational destructiveness, we assumed socialism would be more rational, hence scientific. But although socialism encompasses a scientific perspective, it did not spring from science.

Socialism is not just a political and social program, derived from economic analysis. Instead, it originates in the life of the spirit.

We object to capitalism because we believe that life is sacred.

Kasparov Gives Us a Hint

In Garry Kasparov’s book, Winter is Coming, he mentions in passing the possibility that Vladimir Putin is the wealthiest individual in the world. There’s no way to prove that, but it is possible. Now, what does that mean? I contend that the mere possibility that Putin is the richest person on earth tells us something important about our world.

Putin himself is of course no businessman, neither an inventor or investor. He was a KGB agent, so he’s good at assassinating people and destabilizing foreign governments, and he’s decent at judo, but otherwise he has no identifiable job skills. He doesn’t even have an executive MBA!  Also, he had to read a lot of Karl Marx as a student, and of all the world’s billionaires, Putin is probably the only one who could pass a written test on Marxism.

Putin could only be the wealthiest person on earth if the goal of Russia’s economy was to enrich the politically powerful, which does indeed appear to be the case. Of course, Putin wants the economy to run well enough to provide some urban dwellers with a middle-class living, but he doesn’t want any disruptive technologies or improvements in productivity that would create wealth outside the orbit of his cronies. His idea is to use political power to concentrate wealth in the hands of a few. There’s obviously no room in that vision for an educated and self-confident middle class, or for entrepreneurs, or for an independent judiciary or a free media, and consequently none of those exist in Russia. Opponents are shamelessly shot dead on the street or jailed. Since most people will sense that this system isn’t working for them, Putin has an aggressive propaganda machine to blame all of Russia’s problems on the West. And he’s built a military to complement that propaganda line. The Russian Orthodox Church has been co-opted to support all this, including the murders.

 

Now, let’s compare Putin’s Russia with, say, Saudi Arabia. The goal of that system is clearly to concentrate (or preserve) wealth in the hands of the few. While the Kingdom of Saud is more willing than Putin to divert money to social needs, such as health care, the overall effect is similar to Russia. Everyone must adhere to Wahhabism, an extreme form of Islam which regards non-Wahhabists as either heretics or enemies. Antagonism to Iran (or earlier, toward Israel), is a staple of Saudi propaganda.

So, in Russia, it’s nationalism that distracts ordinary people from the corruption and injustice of Putin’s system, and in Saudi Arabia it’s religion. In both cases people must not view other countries as potential models or allies.

 

What about China? Again, some of the details are different—while China’s industrialization, with skilled workers, engineers and middle managers, implies a middle class, this is not a politically engaged middle class. The Chinese middle class might be compared to the skilled foreign workers in Saudi Arabia, who enjoy high wages and a secure lifestyle, but who have no political influence at all. The goal of the Chinese system is to concentrate wealth and power into the hands of a small number of Communist Party officials and their families, and also to advance the power and prestige of the Chinese state. Currently there is a drift toward dictatorship under Xi, but that is a bit beside the point, which is that political power is used to concentrate wealth. The internal propaganda line emphasizes China’s victimization by the West in the 19th century and promotes a sense of being surrounded by enemies.

 

These systems often imply stagnant or declining living standards for the vast majority, although in China the growth rate has been high enough to allow for rising real wages. But as soon as China’s growth rate slows, ordinary Chinese workers will discover what Russian workers discovered long ago—that the interests of the elite have priority. (Chinese farmers have already learned this lesson).

The manifest injustice and corruption of this system can only be maintained by intensive propaganda and force. Violations of human rights are the norm and indeed these systems could not survive if they respected human rights. Naturally, free elections are out of the question.

Although Russia, China and Saudi Arabia all have nationalistic or sectarian goals in addition to the concentration of wealth, the latter is always the main goal. If that seems like a bold assertion, consider this thought experiment: if Putin could equal the US in international power by allowing free elections, an independent judiciary, a complete range of human rights, a free media—-all with the likely outcome of a re-distribution of wealth—would he do so? Of course not. The goal of his bristling foreign policy is to distract his people from the injustice and harmfulness of his internal policies; it plays a supporting role only. Sacrificing the domestic system for any reason would make no sense to him. Someone who may have become the richest man on earth through political power will never put that power at risk.

 

What should we call such systems? Certainly “kleptocracy” works for Russia, where there was recent mass theft of state assets after the fall of the Soviet Union. It does not work as well for Saudi Arabia, where the oil wasn’t stolen from anyone, although you could argue a kind of metaphorical theft from the economic potential of the entire region. Ideally, the oil wealth of the House of Saud could have been used to develop the economies of the entire Arab world. But a missed opportunity is not actual theft.

And in China the distinction between kleptocrats and skilled managers of complex manufacturing empires seems theoretical. The industrial development of China and the diversion of vast profits to the Communist Party elite do not appear to be independent processes—-they grew up together. Only in the case of land do we see outright theft, and that seems to occur on a large scale. Without clear title of ownership due to a legal system based on Communism, the farmers are pushed aside and left homeless. To push someone off land that their ancestors have occupied for centuries or millennia is certainly a cold act, and it shows that the Chinese oligarchy is capable of acting as kleptocrats when necessary.

And that is a key point. Without an impartial legal system and an independent judiciary, the ruling elites of Russia, China and Saudi Arabia always have the option to simply seize the property of their citizens. In Saudi Arabia, with its small population and great oil wealth, this is unnecessary, but if circumstances changed that option would be exercised, because the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few is the goal of the entire system.

But the outright theft is only a tactic, it’s not necessarily a defining characteristic. We might say these are “concentrating-wealth regimes” or “redistributionist regimes,” or “anti-democratic concentrating-wealth systems,” none of which exactly roll off the tongue. But instead of trying to describe these systems by their methods, let’s look at their results.

 

One result in all cases is a staggering number of extremely wealthy individuals. It’s quite clear in all three of these cases that innovation, productivity gains and improvements in education and health are beside the point. China innovates grudgingly and prefers to steal intellectual property from the West and Japan—and Russia and Saudi Arabia innovate not at all. Anyone in Russia who invents anything useful can expect a visit from Putin’s friends.

Instead of creating new products and services, these systems create billionaires through raw political power. Just as a Mafia chieftain who seizes a restaurant doesn’t concern himself with buying better stoves or mixing machines, the elites of these systems are not focused on productivity gains or innovation. Yes, in China there are competent, even brilliant managers, but the goal is short-term profit. Although China spends a lot of borrowed money on infrastructure, it shorts education, health and the environment. And infrastructure spending is easily diverted to the elite….

So it’s fair to describe these systems as “billionaire capitalism.” That is, it’s capitalism re-shaped to produce billionaires, not products or services. Any products created are only a means to the end of concentrating wealth. The anti-democratic tendencies are implied, because such systems can only persist where the majority are powerless and deceived.

And “billionaire capitalism” is also a useful concept when we look beyond Russia, China and Saudi Arabia.

 

Phenomenal!

I am writing this on Friday evening, Feb. 10, 2017.

On Thursday Trump said he would be unveiling a “phenomenal” tax plan in the coming weeks, and the stock market went crazy, without any information about the specifics. And so (along with most other investors) I made money yesterday and today in the market, and I did so without the slightest belief that the economy needs a tax cut, or that it will benefit anyone except for the very rich. In making investment decisions, sometimes I have to set aside my opinions, and sometimes my opinions are shouldered aside by events.

I have accidentally stumbled onto a method of making money off the illusions of Republicans—just stay in the market until Republican investors realize that sustained economic growth is mostly about investing in the productivity of the American worker, including their inventiveness and healthcare. Until then they will keep gobbling up shares of Goldman-Sachs and small-cap stocks and driving the market higher.

But before Republican investors realize this simple truth, time will pass—we may witness the Return of the Buffalo before they see the light.

Every market is driven by narratives. In 2015 we had a “global collapse” narrative that convinced people that China’s slowing economic growth and declining oil prices would lead to another banking collapse and a severe world-wide recession. It didn’t happen. There are usually competing or complementary narratives to the dominant one; narratives appear and disappear and are seldom fully explained to novice investors. Right now we have the Trump narrative, which says that Trump will revive American manufacturing through protectionism and free the rest of the economy from the chains of Obamacare….and cut taxes on the rich and corporations. There’s an alternative narrative that Trump’s trade policies will wreck global supply chains and send the economy into a recession, but that’s been somewhat muted until now.

Trump believes he can achieve 4% sustained economic growth with his policies, and he can certainly make it seem that way to the very wealthy. What the market sees is—at a minimum—his corporate tax cuts will result in four quarters of improved earnings per share, since quarterly earnings are by convention compared to the same quarter of the previous year. So cutting the corporate tax rate is seen as ensuring another year of increasing stock prices. I’m not completely convinced, because that year could also include trade wars, shooting wars and extreme political instability—but I’m not selling stocks, either. Yet.

But what happens after a year? What’s the real plan for 4% growth? Protectionism and tax cuts?

Making money off the illusions of Republicans….although this may seem like a gift from above, I prefer investment strategies that do not rest on illusions, mine or others’.

 

Pearl of Great Price

A long time ago I heard of someone who was looking for investment ideas in the Bible. I have no idea how that worked out, but it did occur to me that—because of the parable of the Pearl of Great Price—this individual might have ended up in the jewelry business. The parable is:

“Again, the kingdom of heaven is like unto a merchant man, seeking goodly pearls: Who, when he had found one pearl of great price, went and sold all that he had, and bought it.” Mathew 13:45-46, KJV

I don’t believe I’ve ever heard a sermon on that parable, although a Sunday School teacher did once tell me that the Pearl of Great Price was “faith.” I felt that was weak tea.

But what is the Pearl of Great Price for you? What is the one thing that, if you gave up everything to possess it, would make you happy forever? To live a life of love? To follow Buddha’s Path? More generally: is it the life of the spirit? Is it romantic love? Bearing children? To create and experience beauty? To farm your own land? To study science? To be famous? To teach the young? To help the poor? To save lives?

For me, I believe it is to seek and hold the truth, both objectively and subjectively. Objective truth is science and also simple practicality, attending to one’s work without opinions or egotism or fear of failure. Just working with patience and humility to understand the facts and to conform to them. Whether you are trying to build a cabinet or understand sub-atomic particles, there is immense dignity and power in the admission that you don’t know something, but are determined to do so.

There is also an implicit courage in conforming to the objective truth in a world that often sees objective truth as the enemy. Faithfully holding to the truth can even cost you your life.

And subjectively, standing with the truth is similar but perhaps less intuitive (or more intuitive?). To admit, for example, that you have always been frightened of love, or that there is a little numbness in your heart when you confront the suffering of others.  Or, to realize that the Odyssey is a mirror to your own loneliness and isolation. To admit that narcissism may destroy the human race, and that you too can be narcissistic, that the source of our extinction lives right there in your own heart, and you feel it every day.

If you hold with subjective truth, then you easily recognize that the Jews are not unser Ungluck, and you cherish that recognition. When you feel the force of truth in your own heart—“no, the Jews are not responsible for this” or “no, it is wrong to punish the poor”—then there is so much peace and justice in that, who could want more? Of course you may in the end be executed for your wisdom, but your physical safety is part of the price you gladly paid for this pearl.

If you believe in subjective truth, then you know it is almost better to kill a man than it is to lie to him about the life of the spirit. It’s dreadful to tell a young person that mastering finance is more important than reading Yeats or Jung or the I Ching. Of course we all need skills to earn a living, but “man does not live by bread alone.”  To convince a young person that his or her spiritual life is unimportant—or non-existent!—is a terrible thing. I believe this is what Christ meant when he said:

“But whoso shall offend one of these little ones which believe in me, it were better for him that a millstone were hanged about his neck, and that he were drowned in the depth of the sea.”

What is the Pearl of Great Price for you?

 

The Wealth of this Nation

I am hoping this blog entry will completely change everyone’s thinking about the US economy, and I do mean EVERYONE—the pope, Trump, you, Al Gore, Charlize Theron and even Stephanie Pomboy. But to accomplish this monumental task, I will have to quote statistics. I am sorry.

Okay, okay—getting one person to think a little differently is a start.

In the previous post, Stephanie Pomboy managed to distract me from the original question: is the ratio of equity capitalization to GDP a valuable metric? And if it’s valuable, what does the current number mean? Is it too high, too low, or just right?

So, the ratio (based on previously quoted sources) is 148%. Now one problem with this ratio is that US market cap includes a lot of multinationals—companies like McDonalds and Exxon-Mobil which do much of their business overseas, and the value of those foreign operations are reflected in their stock prices, even though the operations themselves do not count as part of US GDP. So this ratio has some imprecision built into it, and I think I will stay away from it. It’s not necessarily a bogus statistic, because it does highlight unusual cases like 1981, but not something I’d want to use often.

But is 148% too high? Well, it’s a ratio of market cap to GDP, and GDP is a given, at least in the short run. So if 148% is too high (by whatever criteria) then $27.4T must be “too high.” And granted, that is a big number.

But what is that $27.4T doing? What economic purpose does it serve? Maybe it’s performing a vital function, providing funds for Elon Musk to hire architects to design villas on Mars, et cetera.

Actually, no. It is rare for money to flow from the stock market into new product development, or any other useful purpose. Sometimes smaller companies will issue stock for the express purpose of buying new equipment or expanding their marketing reach. But the numbers involved are insignificant compared to stock buybacks, in which money flows the opposite direction—from business operations into the market. In the high tech industry in the ‘90s, stock buybacks functioned as an IQ test for CEOs. If your CEO couldn’t figure out anything better to do with a billion dollars than buy back company stock, he or she did not get a passing grade. Bear in mind that major product lines could be developed (sometimes) for much less than a billion dollars, e.g., the LaserJet printer. But of course that required the ability to distinguish good product ideas from bad and to manage the complex process required to take a concept to market.

CEO compensation is mostly linked to the company’s stock price. And if you buy a billion dollars of company stock, the price should generally go up. If you invest that billion in some thingamabob you don’t understand, and work like a slave trying to manage a bunch of nerds to get it built on time and on budget….the stock price will maybe, maybe go up in a few years, and you’ll have missed a lot tee times. So what’s a smart CEO going to do? But that’s another blog entry.

Because we have to figure out what this $27.4T is doing. Of course some of those stocks pay dividends, so that’s a source of income for stockholders, who can use that money to buy groceries or medicine or gifts for grandkids—or tickets to a Peter Thiel lecture. But the dividends are usually modest. SPY, an ETF that replicates the performance of the S&P500, paid a 2% dividend in 2016. People don’t usually buy stocks just for the dividends.

That $27.4T includes a lot of money that’s slated for retirement expenses. It includes money in 401Ks and IRAs and in big pension funds. So the stock market acts as a kind of bank for retirement money. But it’s not really a bank, because it doesn’t make loans.

And that’s the key point. Banks take in money and loan it out, and these loans serve a useful purpose, funding businesses and housing. Bank loans contribute to economic growth most of the time, and if the banks fail, it affects the overall economy profoundly, as in 2008-2009. A bear market doesn’t have the same effect. A stock market doesn’t work like a bank, and it’s not as closely linked to the economy as banks are. Yes, people make money on the stock market and they can sell the stocks and spend the money, and this contributes to GDP….but stock owners as a group never sell out. Individuals come and go, but trillions of dollars are always tied up in the market. We can’t use that money to build bridges or fix climate change or educate the next generation. Sometimes the government can tax that money and use it gainfully, over howls of outrage, but it collects far less tax on that $27.4T than it does on the $18.5T GDP, which produces most income tax and all sales and property taxes.

Investors are just buying and selling stock to each other, for the most part.

This is not, of course, an arrangement that investors chose. Most investors wouldn’t care if they were primary investors—that is, if the money they invested went directly to building new factories or paying for R&D, so long as the value of their stock was the same. (And yes, the market could be structured to include more direct investment, but that’s another blog entry.)

Readers may recall my entry, “Missing the Scale,” and so this might be a good time to think about the scale of $27.4 trillion. Of course that’s a very large number, but what does it mean functionally? What could you do with it?

It cost about $167 billion (in 2016 dollars) for the entire Apollo program.  So $27.4 trillion would pay for 164 Apollo programs. (The Apollo program cost $25.4 billion according to http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/space/5852237/Apollo-11-Moon-landing-ten-facts-about-Armstrong-Aldrin-and-Collins-mission.html, and there are any number of calculators online that will allow you to adjust for inflation. I assumed 1969 dollars as a starting point.)

The US spent $341 billion in 1945 dollars to fight WWII, and that would be $4.57T today. So yes, the stock market today contains more than six times the wealth required to fight WWII. Six times.

There appears to be about 913 million acres of farmland in the US, which at $3000/acre, would imply $2.74T for all the farms in the US.  The $3000 per acre is just a guess and would of course include all equipment, buildings, fences and other assets, including water rights. (https://www.statista.com/topics/1126/us-agriculture/)

So the US equity market capitalization is roughly 10x the value of all the farms in the US.

And it’s also $84,568 for each individual in the US. We could buy a Mercedes E550 (at $60,650 each, MSRP) for every adult in the US….for only $15.1 trillion, including dealer prep. That would still leave us $9.6T for stereo equipment and custom rims. Expensive, yes, but you get what you pay for.

So $27.4T is an immense amount of money, more than we can easily envision. Now, some of you may be thinking, this socialism thing has potential I never realized, and others may be asking: what about BONDS?

 And after that, you might wonder, what about real estate, commercial and residential?

 What’s the total value of everything in the US, Corvus?

 I’m so glad you asked. Estimates differ. The most credible estimates range from $124T-$188T.

Here are the details:

I think the energy reserves estimate is way too high. First—$150T is greater than the entire world’s annual GDP. Second, in a country with a GDP of $18.5T, with energy reserves of $150T, our entire economy should be built around energy extraction, like Kuwait or Saudi Arabia, and it isn’t. Still, these reserves are obviously valuable, and are not included in most other estimates, as far as I can tell.

Nor are wind and solar rights.

Also, nowhere do I see the value of schools and universities, including medical and dental schools, explicitly included in our national wealth.

I prefer this last number—his approach seems detailed and he does include government assets, possibly including mineral assets. I also like his point that GDP is roughly 7.5% of total national wealth, which makes sense, because when an “average” investment yields between 5% and 10%, you’d expect that the ratio of GDP to total wealth would fall into the same range.

Since the US economy has grown steadily since 2009, the $188T should be bigger today. Unfortunately, I can’t just take the GDP growth figures since 2009 and scale up Rutledge’s 2009 estimate, because total wealth isn’t necessarily a function of GDP, at least over the short term. But the $188T must have increased since 2009, for two reasons: quantitative easing added $3.5T to the money supply and the stock market increased in value by about $19T—(based on the increase in the S&P500 from March 2009 to Jan. 2017). Putting those known factors together, and rounding down a bit to avoid exaggeration, let’s say that our total wealth is $200T today (1-15-2017). Using $200T as a nice round number works because Rutledge’s $188T was just an estimate back in 2009.

So the $27.4T, as massive as it is, is only a fraction of our total wealth. Using the $200T estimate, total stock market capitalization is 13.7% of our wealth.

This sum is about $600K per US resident. I am not suggesting we divide the $200T up like pirates, but that number should imply a level of opportunity and freedom for the average citizen that does not exist today. Within that context, paying for college or scraping together a down payment for a house shouldn’t be nearly as challenging as it is for most Americans.

Referring back to scale…how much is $200T? That’s such a large number that coming up with a comparison is difficult. According to one estimate, that’s more dollars than there are ants on the planet.  http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-29281253. And it’s almost certainly more dollars than there are bees (source: http://biology.stackexchange.com/questions/9386/how-many-honeybees-are-there-and-how-has-the-number-changed-across-time.)

So yes, if we have to reach into the insect world to get an idea of the scale of $200T, then we are truly a land of inconceivable wealth. We cannot understand it from the point of view of the human past—$200T is too large a sum to fit into a frame bounded by history. Despite a lifetime of interest in the economy and investing, I did not fully understand how wealthy we are until I did this research. This is a fabulously wealthy country, but our people by and large do not benefit. “The shoemaker’s children run barefoot.”

And the fact that we don’t know for certain what our national wealth is just compounds the mystery of this problem. How have we never asked this question? Don’t we understand that many of our problems have as their ultimate context our total assets?

Given a total wealth of $200T, we can see that the debates over quantitative easing were conditioned by the assumption that $3.5T is a staggering sum of money—but it isn’t. And likewise the doomsday talk about the national debt, which is effectively $14.3T (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States).

Once, long ago, someone told me that poor people have no idea how much money rich people have. “The poor think that if you have $10,000 in the bank, you are rich,” he said. Well, it goes way beyond that—we not only fail to see how much money the rich have, we fail to see how much money we have ourselves.

 

Narratives, Wilt Chamberlain and the Book of Kells

Narratives can undermine any discussion, especially if they’re short on specifics. And this is the case even when the narratives themselves are largely true. To demonstrate, let’s talk about Wilt Chamberlain.

The narrative about Chamberlain is that he was the greatest athlete that ever lived. He was 7’1” and had incredible speed, strength and skill. He scored 100 points in an NBA game and he was so strong that once when he dunked the ball it broke a teammate’s toe. He played for the Harlem Globetrotters one season, and his comic routine for them was this: a teammate (Meadowlark Lemon) fell to the floor, and Chamberlain knelt down and picked Lemon up, standing up and tossing him like a rag doll into the air, and then catching him as he fell. Lemon weighed 210’. His endurance was legendary; he never tired. He still holds the record for most minutes played per game for a season. He was often triple-teamed by defenders. His basketball skills were extraordinary—shooting, rebounding, passing and blocking shots. In some games he got more rebounds than the other team got in total. He slept with 20,000 women and kept a record of his conquests in a Rolodex, but he never had time to read it. Despite his great size he ran marathons in his fifties. (Think of his knees….)

 This is a true narrative, with the possible exception of the number of his sexual partners. Whether he’s “the greatest athlete that ever lived” is a matter of opinion, but he was definitely a phenomenon.

Let’s do a little social experiment. We tell people that Chamberlain once averaged 75 points a game over an NBA season, and he also averaged 40 rebounds a game. People will react to this in one of three ways, depending on their relationship to the narrative:

Those who are basketball fans, but know little about Chamberlain—if they haven’t internalized the narrative—will probably say: “I doubt that,” or “Impossible.” Because a fan knows how difficult it would be to ever score 75 points in a game, much less average 75 points over a season.

Those who are fans, and who have internalized the narrative—that is, if they believe the Chamberlain legend—will probably say, “Yes, he could do anything!”

And those who are basketball experts, people who know statistics and records, how would they respond? They’ll say, “No, that’s incorrect.” Because although Chamberlain does hold the record for average points per game, it was 50.4, not 75. And although he also holds the record for rebounds per game, that number was 27.2, not 40.

The people who believe that Wilt Chamberlain averaged 75 points and 40 rebounds over an entire season are people who have an impression of the truth, but not the truth itself.

When we miss the scale, we can also miss it on the high side. Chamberlain’s achievements were great, but not infinite; he seemed like a Greek god, but he was mortal.

Now, if even a true narrative can mislead, imagine how much damage a false narrative can do.

Or better yet, a narrative with truth and falsehood subtly intermingled, like an illustration in the Book of Kells.

 

 

Stephanie Pomboy miscalculates

An article in the November 21, 2016 issue of Barron’s, quotes Stephanie Pomboy, who is a financial adviser:

“Relative to gross domestic product, she notes, the U.S. equity market’s capitalization is the second highest on record, at 196% of GDP. When the Gipper came in [Reagan, in 1981], stock valuations were at a postwar low of about 40% of GDP.

That decline in equities’ relative values was the result of a long bear market in bonds, she continues, which took yields from 4% in 1964 to 14% in 1981. The flip side of was the ascent of equities, in tandem with the three-decade-plus bond bull market, which any number of pundits and prognosticators have declared dead and done.”

So, does this quote make any sense? First, about that “long bear market in bonds,” she forgot to mention inflation and the Fed’s response to inflation in the ‘70s, which is what drove prices of bonds ever lower. But starting, as she does, in 1964 just muddies the waters. Bond yields were up only moderately from 1964 to 1973, (source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INTDSRUSM193N) when stocks fell dramatically—partly due to inflation. Bond yields also increased in 1973 due to inflationary fears.

But bond yields did not cause the decline in stocks; both were effects of the same cause—inflation. The big increases in bond yields didn’t start until 1977, long after the equity crash of ’73-’74.  Inflation throughout the seventies tended to keep investors out of equity markets—they preferred real estate, commodities and later bonds and CDs.  The very high bond yields of the late ‘70s and early ‘80s (> 9%) were due to the Fed’s anti-inflation policies and had nothing to do with stock prices.

So Pomboy appears to have the cause-and-effect wrong on the equity market’s valuation in 1981.

Be that as it may, is an equity market capitalization of 196% of GDP too high, as Pomboy seems to imply? Is that a sign the market is over-valued? It is certainly a big, big number. In fact it’s quite staggering to think that there’s twice as much money in equities as the total value of the U.S. economy for an entire year.

In researching this post I found all sorts of interesting numbers. For example, the entire world GDP in 2016 is estimated at $119T. (Source: the IMF via http://statisticstimes.com/economy/countries-by-projected-gdp.php). The IMF also estimates 2016 GDP for the US as $18.5T. So is equity market capitalization in the US ~ $37T, as Pomboy implies?

According the World Bank, no. In 2015 the US market cap was about $25T (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.LCAP.CD). The S&P500 went up 9.5% in 2016 (this number is the market value price, not total returns) so although the S&P500 isn’t total market capitalization we can use its growth to estimate the growth of total market cap. That brings us to $27.4T, which is of course a big number, but only 148% of GDP.

I don’t know how Pomboy came up with 196%, but it’s starting to look like a suspiciously exact number. However, this sort of thing is rife in the financial press. People toss off false or muddled historical narratives (like the history of the bond market in the ‘70s and ‘80s, presented without reference to inflation) and back them up with numbers that are difficult to verify—or just wrong.

Elsewhere the article introduces Pomboy: “The irrepressible Stephanie Pomboy writes to her MacroMavens clients that, if Trump implements the policies on which he campaigned, lifting the burdens of regulation and Obamacare on businesses while cutting taxes, ‘we will finally get back to genuine economic growth built on entrepreneurial spirit and a rising standard of living for the populace.’ That would mark a reversal from the ‘ping-ponging from one asset bubble to the next, papering over the deep wounds in between with more and more debt’.”

What in the world can this mean? Although we can appreciate the “papering over the deeps wounds with more and more debt” as an application of confessional poetry to economics…..was what happened in 2008 an asset bubble? Of course not. Real estate prices in 2008 were maybe a bit over-valued, but the real problem was CDOs and collusion to sell sub-prime mortgages as AAA, and to do so on a massive scale.

Systemic fraud is not the same as an asset bubble.

And the rest of it—“entrepreneurial spirit”—is just a kind of right-wing Tourette’s syndrome, where random neo-conservative catch-phrases converge like flash mobs on a paragraph. Obamacare! Regulation! Burden on businesses!

Okay, she’s a right-wing crackpot, and I should just let it go. And a year ago, or five years, I would have let it go. But I’ve come to believe that part of America’s problem is that people like me cut people like Stephanie Pomboy too much slack.

How, you might ask? For starters, Pomboy, and people like her, are a problem in getting good financial news and analysis. A fair number of the people writing articles, or being interviewed for articles, are ideologically incompetent. They are crippled by a right-wing narrative that makes it somehow impossible for them to calculate a percentage correctly, or remember the economic history of the seventies, or objectively evaluate the economic significance of Obamacare. This isn’t just bias, this isn’t just a point of view—this is a narrative or an ideology that causes people to make shocking errors in their thinking. And it’s not just Stephanie Pomboy–this is everywhere.

The “fake news” phenomenon isn’t limited to assertions that Obama founded ISIS. It’s far more subtle and pervasive than that. Fake news has as its foundation a false narrative of capitalism as victim. The constant repetition of this narrative, and its use as the unstated background for many policy discussions, amounts to a kind of hidden tax on simple realism. It makes us all a little dumber.

 

Conservatism and Property

Why be a conservative?

I believe conservatism springs from the realization that our lives are founded on the great achievements of the past. For example, we could not live without agriculture, which was developed slowly through millennia, almost invisible in the historical record. Shouldn’t we be wary about innovations that might threaten our daily bread?

And likewise for modern medicine, sewage systems and other public health measures, including the power of quarantine, as well as vaccines and antibiotics. Although some of these are of recent provenance, taken together they have resulted in vastly improved life expectancy and lower infant mortality. Defending these achievements should be as reflexive as our instinct for survival—or so we might assume.

And in the political sphere there are similar monuments of the past, including democracy, the rule of law, freedom of religion and speech, abolition of slavery and torture and child labor, the emancipation of women and racial minorities, and compulsory public education. Surely to revise these institutions would threaten the stability of our civilization.

And in terms of our spiritual and intellectual lives there are the works of Homer and Shakespeare, of Socrates, the Bible and Buddhism. There is the worth of the individual, and of the primacy of reason and science, which are founded upon the value and dignity of the individual. There is philosophy, poetry and music. There is the idea of cultural relativity, which forms the basis for peace (when it exists) between radically different cultures.

And many of these achievements involved arduous effort and heroic sacrifice. A history of individualism would certainly include a chapter on Luther, who concluded his defense against the charge of heresy with: Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders. Gott hilft mir. (“Here I stand. I cannot do otherwise. God help me.”) Needless to say, he was looking death in the face.

Many of our political institutions are practically written in blood, forced through by people of almost supernatural self-confidence. As Washington said, dismissing the offer of a pardon from King George, “Those who have done no wrong require no pardon.” And yet as he said that, he too could feel the rope around his neck.

In view of this glorious history, who could be anything other than conservative? We see that the great minds of the past have even embedded the possibility for change in their enduring gifts to us: science and democracy and the value of the individual all imply continuing innovation.

But modern American “conservatives” concern themselves with little of the above. They are conservative mostly in respect to the current American class system, which dates back to Reagan’s time, to the end of the Cold War. This class structure has one defining feature: that the gap between rich and poor must always increase, despite any other consideration. Neither nationalism nor Christianity nor laissez faire capitalism have any influence on this aggressive class ideology; indeed they are all subordinate and expendable. The rich must always grow richer more rapidly than the overall economy, which implies that the other classes must grow relatively poorer, whatever the moral and political hazard.

This is what modern “conservatives” wish to conserve—billionaire capitalism, a capitalism designed to produce billionaires and little else.

You might argue that the current class structure rests on the right to property, and doesn’t property qualify as one of the achievements of past which we should conserve? And I agree that property is one of those achievements—but we may differ on the definition and history of property. For property is not what it once was. In the time of Rollo, Duke of Normandy, the land Rollo was granted by the King of France was not guaranteed. Rollo had to fight all comers keep it, and if he couldn’t, the King was under no obligation to send troops to help out. The King, after all, had little interest in propping up weak vassals. But over centuries we evolved a different system. Unlike Rollo, if someone tries to steal my home I do not fight them; in fact this would be an unnecessary and dangerous complication. Instead I go to the law, and the law will evict and punish the thieves, no doubt with many frustrating delays and expenses. Still, this is a better system by far than Rollo faced.

Property today (and for many centuries heretofore) is a social system. I pay taxes (in this case, mostly to educate the next generation), and in return society guarantees my ownership of this home. In theory my obligations may also include personal service, for example on a jury.  I must also obey zoning laws and seek permits before modifying my property; even a new furnace requires an inspection, and a new roof requires a building permit. My sprinkler system must have a proper anti-siphon valve, and if that valve fails, I am required by law to replace it. Property today is always social, always legally defined, always constrained—but it is also quite secure. The days of Rollo seizing or holding property by the strength of his right arm are gone.

And if Rollo himself had preferred absolute property rights he wouldn’t have paid fealty to the King of France and accepted a title of nobility from him, not to mention converting to Christianity and learning to speak French. Rollo may have appreciated the Biblical insight that “those who live by the sword die by the sword,” and however effective Rollo and his men were in battle, they couldn’t fight all of France indefinitely. The King needed men to defend the mouth of the Seine against Vikings, and Rollo—himself a Viking—seemed like a good candidate if he were willing, and he was. So—far short of the guarantee to property we have today—Rollo and the King of France forged a social definition of Normandy as property. And despite squabbles over border areas, this arrangement generally worked. No Vikings sailed up the Seine to attack Paris after Rollo became Duke, and the King never attempted to have Rollo assassinated. Whatever doubts and frustrations the King and Rollo may have had about this arrangement did not rise to notice in the historical record. In fact it seems that both were relatively satisfied.

So the “property” of right-wing vision—where property is guaranteed by magical means, or by the personal charisma of the very wealthy, or by sheer “obviousness”—is not grounded in reality. Without the force of law, no billionaire would keep his assets until dawn. There is a symbiotic relationship between society and the property owner. Property is always social, and the obligations of the property holder can change.

The only question is, what obligations shall we impose on billionaire capitalism, so that we can restore democracy and prosperity for all? Our civilization has defined property in a way that makes this question not only possible but inevitable.

 

Us and Them

Recently, Bernie Sanders said: “In other words, one of the struggles that you’re going to be seeing in the Democratic Party is whether we go beyond identity politics. I think it’s a step forward in America if you have an African-American CEO of some major corporation. But you know what, if that guy is going to be shipping jobs out of this country, and exploiting his workers, it doesn’t mean a whole hell of a lot whether he’s black or white or Latino.”

 Let’s take a deeper look at this subject.

There are two kinds of political movements: those that emphasize the differences between human beings, and those that emphasize the similarities.  The best recent examples are nationalism and socialism, respectively.

In Buddhism and Hinduism there is the concept of ahimsa or “non-harming.”  To live a good life, we must take care to minimize harm to others—and ourselves. We see this idea also in the Hippocratic Oath, which states, “first, do no harm.”

If we compare political movements or systems to the practice of ahimsa, we see that most political ideologies result in human suffering, but some far more than others. There can be no question that nationalism has resulted in more human suffering than any other ideology in modern times and perhaps ever. The other culprits—monarchical-aristocratic systems, theocratic systems, Enlightenment liberalism and communism —have all led to significant conflict and suffering, but nationalism was mostly responsible for World Wars I and II, and those were by far the most destructive wars of the twentieth century.

War and genocide usually require some strong differentiating ideology, because we rarely kill those whom we feel are similar to ourselves. We seldom kill our kinfolk or our friends, except in truly disordered environments. Besides nationalism, there are also differentiating ideologies based on religion, race and class.

Despite its generally destructive record, nationalism has its uses. Ireland would never have become a nation without a concerted effort to emphasize its cultural uniqueness, led by Lady Gregory, Synge and Yeats. The cultural treasures of Ireland would have been lost in the conformity of Victorian Britain and its empire. America would never have hardened into a political whole without emphasizing the uniqueness of our experience, our institutions, and our ideals. You spend a few hours reading or listening to stories about Washington or Daniel Morgan or Abraham Lincoln and suddenly you realize—what we have is different.

Now, I’m aware that the preceding paragraphs are only a simple model, and that someone who has studied political movements professionally understands all this in much more depth. However, I believe this model illustrates a vital point: that our perspective on the big question of “Us and Them” is critically important.

If we apply this simple model to modern America, we see immediately that “identity politics” are rooted in, or modeled upon, nationalism. The Black Nationalism of the sixties and seventies was just that, and other identity movements certainly contain nationalistic elements. In feminist narratives, we often see a dominant group and a subordinate group with many admirable qualities, just as in most nationalist mythologies.

And these identity movements, entirely or partly nationalistic, also have their uses.  As one of my friends said, “women’s studies can shed light on the specifics of oppression,” and this is quite true for some other identity movements as well. Unrestrained police violence affects all ethnic groups in America, but Black Lives Matter worked as a message because it was specific.  It focused on the worst case, the effect of police violence on African-Americans. This may have appeared to de-emphasize the suffering of other groups, but it made a clear point that broke through public consciousness.

And there is a certain clarity and comfort from having an identity in such an impersonal society. People cherish their identities; they feel grounded in them. If there are distinctive foods associated with an identity, these foods make people feel more human; if music is part of an identity, then the sound of that music suddenly breaking the silence brings us joy.

Long ago, I was traveling through Germany and rented a barren room for the night in a small, silent town. All alone and unable to sleep, I opened a window, and just as I did I heard in the distance a fragment of a song I knew well: Moon in all your splendor know only my heart. People everywhere can call upon the moon to heal their sorrow, but there’s only one place where they use that song to do so, and that’s the place where I was born. Every cell in my body heard that song at that moment.

However, as meaningful as our identities are, there is a much more ancient and powerful claim on our loyalty, something with a nearly infinite capacity to renew and heal us utterly. And that is the realization that all human beings are brothers and sisters; that every child is your own child; that every old man is your father and every old woman is your mother.

And in modern times, there are only a few voices to present that vision—socialism, Buddhism, and perhaps a few others.

So, my view of socialism versus identity politics is that socialism must be the main message, because only socialism can heal our society from the ground up.  But of course identity politics can play a useful secondary role, helping to “shed light on the specifics of oppression.”

 

(The song was “San Antonio Rose”).

 

Conditions on Life

As I mentioned earlier, we cannot put conditions on life. But this “life” is mostly ourselves, our thoughts and feelings, our bodies, the unknowable strength and resilience we possess, the deep places in our minds. And we can know nothing and experience nothing aside from our own being.

So if we cannot put conditions on life, then we ourselves have no conditions. We have great freedom to move in all directions, to invent and prophesy, to cry out in joy or grief, to defy and forgive, to love and be loved with complete abandon.

We have no conditions…except the brevity of life. Life is so rich and beautiful, but it does not last. And as Robert Louis Stevenson wrote:

The world is so full of a number of things

I’m sure we should be as happy as kings